SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Bengals' Tee Higgins only franchised player of 2024 to not get extension. What's next?

The SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterNFL’s 2024 deadline for players bearing the franchise tag to sign multi-year contracts expired Monday afternoon, and everybody got filthy rich this year – from a football perspective anyway – save the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins.

As expected, the Bengals did not reach a long-term agreement with the wide receiver, who’s heading into his fifth pro season. That means Higgins heads into the upcoming campaign scheduled to make $21.8 million, the value of the one-year tender for franchised wideouts this year.

What happens next? The way the receiver market is evolving, Higgins stands to cash in handsomely in 2025 – provided he takes care of business in 2024.

Here’s what to know moving forward:

When can Tee Higgins sign his next contract?

Higgins is eligible to sign an extension with the Bengals following the 2024 season, but it’s far more likely he’ll hit the free agent market next March – unless Cincinnati tags him a second time, which seems highly unlikely.

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Will Tee Higgins hold out of training camp?

Also unlikely. He signed his one-year tender last month after the Bengals completed their mandatory minicamp. Prior to signing the tender, Higgins technically wasn’t under contract – many franchised players wait deep into the summer before accepting the tender – and wasn't obliged to show up for any team activities. But now he's back in the fold and would be subject to mandatory fines if he skips any portion of training camp. Cincinnati’s veterans report July 23.

Why didn’t the Bengals extend Tee Higgins?

Cincinnati certainly likes the Clemson product, who’s developed into one of the league’s top No. 2 targets and is popular within the locker room and Queen City community.

"(W)e feel like we're a better team with him," Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin said in February at the annual scouting combine following the team's decision to tag Higgins. "The reason we franchised him is because we would like to have him.

"He fits us perfectly."

But Tobin also told the Bengals' website in January: "Everyone on our team would like Tee Higgins back. There’s a pie, and there are things we can do and can’t do because of it."

And there’s the rub.

Cincinnati signed QB Joe Burrow to a five-year, $275 million extension last September – it’s average annual payout of $55 million is the NFL’s highest (recently tied by QB Trevor Lawrence’s new pact with the Jaguars). However the Bengals are now officially in the window to lock up Pro Bowl WR1 Ja’Marr Chase, who’s likely to command a deal close to or exceeding the four-year, $140 million windfall recently landed by Minnesota Vikings superstar WR Justin Jefferson, Chase’s former teammate at LSU. And Tobin has already signaled Chase is “in our long-term plans. He’s a high-level player in this league. And we want to keep those kinds of players on our team.”

That apparently doesn’t leave a bigger piece of pie for Higgins.

What kind of market should Tee Higgins expect in 2025?

Jefferson’s deal reset the wide receiver pay scale, and it’s $35 million per year value is the highest in league history among non-quarterbacks. Other pass catchers who got their bags this offseason? The list includes Philadelphia Eagles WRs A.J. Brown ($32 million per year) and DeVonta Smith ($25 million annually), Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30 million annually), Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle ($28.3 million annually), Houston Texans WR Nico Collins ($24.3 million annually), Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($23.3 million annually) and the Tennessee Titans’ Calvin Ridley ($23 million annually).

Like Smith, Waddle and Ridley, Higgins has traditionally been more of a Robin type (to Chase’s Batman). Injuries to himself and Burrow prevented Higgins from realizing a third consecutive 1,000-yard effort in 2023, but the departure of longtime Bengals fixture Tyler Boyd to Nashville could mean a larger target share for Higgins in 2024 given Cincinnati has no established No. 3 option.

Given the steadily expanding state of the salary cap, it seems reasonable to expect Higgins could command something north of $25 million per season starting in 2025 – and maybe more if he can convince an outside suitor he’s ready for a WR1 role.

Which other players received the franchise tag in 2024?

Baltimore Ravens DT Justin Madubuike: Eventually signed four-year, $98 million extension.

New York Giants OLB Brian Burns: Franchised by the Carolina Panthers, he was later traded to the Giants and signed a five-year, $141 million contract.

Chicago Bears CB Jaylon Johnson: Eventually signed four-year, $76 million extension.

Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.: Eventually signed three-year, $70 million extension.

Jacksonville Jaguars OLB Josh Hines-Allen: Eventually signed five-year, $141.3 million contract.

Tennessee Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed: Franchised by the Kansas City Chiefs, he was later traded to the Titans and signed a four-year, $76.4 million contract.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers FS Antoine Winfield: Eventually signed four-year, $84.1 million extension.

New England Patriots S Kyle Dugger (transition tag): Eventually signed four-year, $58 million extension.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.